I often heard this question while teaching probability to high school seniors. Each semester, several students would ask me to divulge secret tricks that could improve the odds of winning a poker game or hitting the lottery jackpot.

Whenever the question came up, I used the example of a coin toss to demonstrate there were no secret tricks. Regardless of the number of tosses, the probability of heads would always be 50 percent.

A student would pipe up, “Not if you had a double-sided coin.”

“That’s cheating,” someone else would say.

I do not advocate cheating, but if the primary aim is to inspire and motivate, using gimmicks to poke the odds is acceptable. The following Zen parable illustrates that point.

***

A Japanese general faced the greatest challenge of his military career. Due to circumstances beyond his control, he had lost several soldiers and was outnumbered by the enemy. Undaunted, he decided to continue with the attack.

Before setting out on their journey, one of his favorite lieutenants approached and shared his own misgivings and those of the other soldiers. Many were filled with doubt and were convinced they would not survive the battle. The general nodded but said nothing.

Halfway to the battleground, they stopped at a religious shrine and prayed together. Afterward, the general took out a coin and said, “I shall toss the coin. If it is heads, we shall win the battle. If it is tails, we shall lose. Either way, destiny will reveal itself.”

He threw the coin and all watched as it landed. It was heads. The soldiers clapped and cheered. Brimming with confidence, they vigorously attacked the enemy and were victorious.

After the battle, the lieutenant shook his head in amazement. “No one can change destiny.”

“That’s right,” the general replied as he showed the lieutenant the coin, which had heads on both sides.

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